The hazard rate is the instantaneous rate at which a matter resolves at a given age, among matters still open at that age. It shows when in a matter's life resolution is most likely.
Hazard is not constant. For settlement it concentrates around procedural pressure points such as a ruling on a dispositive motion, a certification decision, a scheduled mediation or a trial date.
Competing risks complicate the picture. Settlement, adjudication and dismissal race one another, each with its own hazard, and whichever occurs first ends the matter.
A hazard rate is not a probability over a period. It is a rate at a point in time, from which period probabilities are derived.
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