A horizon is the stated period over which a score or probability applies, such as resolution within a defined number of months from the cutoff date. A probability without a horizon is incomplete, because the likelihood of an event always depends on how long one is willing to wait for it.
Outcome and duration questions are tied together by time. The probability that a matter resolves, settles or is dismissed rises as the window widens, so a number quoted without its window cannot be compared to another number or checked later.
A horizon is fixed when the score is issued and is preserved with it. When a matter is re-scored after a checkpoint, the new score carries its own horizon measured from its own cutoff, and the earlier one is kept beside it.
A horizon is not a deadline for the matter and not a forecast date. It is the frame inside which a stated likelihood is meant to be read and tested.
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