An audit trail is the time-ordered record of what was estimated, decided and changed, by which method version and on what evidence, kept so that any later review can reconstruct the reasoning.
Two trails matter in capital decisions. The prediction trail records the model version, inputs and output. The underwriting trail records the price, structure and mandate that the decision-maker applied on top. Keeping them separate shows which part of a result came from measurement and which from judgment.
A trail is only credible if it cannot be edited afterward. Entries are timestamped and appended, and corrections are made by adding a dated entry, not by changing an earlier one.
An audit trail is not a log file nobody reads. It is the structured record a regulator, an auditor or a counterparty uses to test a decision.
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