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Ground Truth

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Ground truth is the verified result against which a prediction is judged, such as the recorded disposition of a resolved matter. For a measurement to be trusted, its ground truth must come from a source independent of the model.

Evaluation needs an answer key. For a legal outcome, the key is the documented result of the matter as recorded by the forum, matched back to the prediction that was made before the result was known.

The quality of the key limits the quality of the test. If the recorded result is coarse or ambiguous, the evaluation can only be as precise as the record allows, and the claim has to be scoped to match.

Ground truth is not the same as the label used in training. It is the held-out result used in evaluation, and it must not have influenced the inputs.

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Related Terms
Sealed OutcomeRealized OutcomeLabel BasisBacktestLeakage

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