A percentile band is an interval between two stated percentiles of a distribution, such as the 25th to the 75th, used to show a range of likely values instead of a single figure. The percentiles chosen are always stated.
Bands communicate uncertainty honestly. A narrow band means the cohort's outcomes were similar and a wide band means they varied, and either is information a decision-maker needs.
When a matter is re-estimated at a checkpoint, the band typically moves and narrows as events eliminate competing endpoints. The sequence of bands is preserved so the movement can be audited.
A percentile band is not a confidence interval. It describes the spread of outcomes in a cohort, not the uncertainty of an estimated parameter.
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