Excess time at risk is the 90th-percentile time to resolution minus the median. It is the distance between the figure a plan is built on and the figure one matter in ten actually delivers.
Two books with identical medians can carry very different excess time at risk. The book with the longer tail needs more reserve, more facility headroom and more patience from its investors.
The measure turns a vague worry that some matters run long into a number with a definition, a cohort and a cutoff date. It can be tracked over time and compared across case families.
Excess time at risk is not the expected delay on a matter. It is a property of the distribution, and it is the span in which financing pressure accumulates.
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